What chance does BYU have to win a first round Tourney game?

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by BlueK

That is a very good question.

Here are some teams that won first round games last year:

Western Ky
Siena
Cleveland State
Dayton

There were many others that were seeded lower than us who gave their high seeded opponent a much better game than we did to A&M, including USU's near upset of Marquette.

You can try to overanalyze the reasons all you want, but dumb luck is as much of a reason as anything else. None of those teams that I listed above are teams you or I would fear in the regular season.

And even though we haven't won recently, except for last year, BYU actually has played pretty well in their previous recent appearances. Xavier was a darn good team that should have beaten #1 seed Ohio State after they slipped by us. Only a terrible call by the officials in the closing seconds prevented that.

I don't care what Mike says, the streak can't last forever. We have had some teams that were talented enough to win a game. We just haven't had the breaks.

Shawn Bradley's win was a long time ago. Or did we defeat SMU without him.

Winning in the Tourney is fun, and I really have no fun, except to see the little puppies whip a big dog now and then, if other teams win. Okay I lied, I had a smidgeon of fun when Utah did well, but that feels like a long time ago as well.

The bad part of being a fan of BYU or another less successful school, is you often need to have great memories, because unlike being a fan of Kentucky or North Carolina, you don't have to remember very long before another Tourney run comes along. Yet, becoming a fan of a school with which one has no affiliation is not an option.

If Miles can make some improvement at the line, rebound say, 6 to 7 times per game and Tav has improved based on his Brazil team experience, a country which should be cursed for its lack of observance of the rule of law, then this year might be rewarding.

I don't expect too many losses, save perhaps to Arizona, one to UNLV, Utah and probably one to SDSU, and the probably the first round Tourney loss.

[BlueK]

Originally Posted by Archaea

Shawn Bradley's win was a long time ago. Or did we defeat SMU without him.

Winning in the Tourney is fun, and I really have no fun, except to see the little puppies whip a big dog now and then, if other teams win. Okay I lied, I had a smidgeon of fun when Utah did well, but that feels like a long time ago as well.

The bad part of being a fan of BYU or another less successful school, is you often need to have great memories, because unlike being a fan of Kentucky or North Carolina, you don't have to remember very long before another Tourney run comes along. Yet, becoming a fan of a school with which one has no affiliation is not an option.

If Miles can make some improvement at the line, rebound say, 6 to 7 times per game and Tav has improved based on his Brazil team experience, a country which should be cursed for its lack of observance of the rule of law, then this year might be rewarding.

I don't expect too many losses, save perhaps to Arizona, one to UNLV, Utah and probably one to SDSU, and the probably the first round Tourney loss.

The SMU win was in 93 while Bradley was still on his mission. The losing streak bothers me as much as it could any follower of BYU basketball. It's very frustrating. However, if we only lose the games you've indicated, we will get a high enough seeding that we should win in the first round. I've consistently argued that BYU's NCAA tournament problems are a result of failures in the regular season and weak scheduling. We never seem to do enough to warrant much better treatment than the committee gives us, so we keep getting slapped with seedings even the great program to the north of us couldn't win. In fact, Utah has very seldom won an NCAA game when they've been seeded in the bottom half of the bracket. If we can ever get to the top half we'll probably win.

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by BlueK

The SMU win was in 93 while Bradley was still on his mission. The losing streak bothers me as much as it could any follower of BYU basketball. It's very frustrating. However, if we only lose the games you've indicated, we will get a high enough seeding that we should win in the first round. I've consistently argued that BYU's NCAA tournament problems are a result of failures in the regular season and weak scheduling. We never seem to do enough to warrant much better treatment than the committee gives us, so we keep getting slapped with seedings even the great program to the north of us couldn't win. In fact, Utah has very seldom won an NCAA game when they've been seeded in the bottom half of the bracket. If we can ever get to the top half we'll probably win.

To me, it seems BYU's receiving an upper end bracket seeding depends upon very few losses and a win against Arizona, no home losses and no more than three conference losses. Given the lack of depth in the front line, that might be a tall order.

[BlueK]

Originally Posted by Archaea

To me, it seems BYU's receiving an upper end bracket seeding depends upon very few losses and a win against Arizona, no home losses and no more than three conference losses. Given the lack of depth in the front line, that might be a tall order.

13-3 in conference is doable and we can go undefeated at home. A win over ASU is necessary. A win over Arizona might be a longshot but I don't think it's impossible. If all we have is 4-5 losses I think a 5-7 seed is realistic.

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by BlueK

13-3 in conference is doable and we can go undefeated at home. A win over ASU is necessary. A win over Arizona might be a longshot but I don't think it's impossible. If all we have is 4-5 losses I think a 5-7 seed is realistic.

I concur with your assessment. Of course, a key injury and all our speculation is for naught. Loss at Utah, UNLV and SDSU. Wild card might be how UNM progresses. They could also add an another away loss.