2007 Season Take - cougarguard.com — unofficial BYU Cougars / LDS sports, football, basketball forum and message board

jay santos · 08-27-2007, 06:03 PM

2007 take

Offense

QB

He’s been given a lot of praise by his coaches and fellow players. Physically, he reminds me of Feterik. Shorter and weaker arm strength but accurate. He struggles making the throws where arm strength is paramount like the outs. He’s going to struggle when he’s improvising. Doman has been very high in his praise, but not knowing Doman’s history on these things I don’t know whether to belief it or chalk it up to typical Doman exuberance. His teammates have also been high in their praise.

He’ll be similar to Feterik soph year or Beck soph year, with pass ratings of 144 and 129. If he’s forced to win games himself, it will be an unsuccessful season. If the OL, running game, and D takes the pressure off, he could be very successful.

RB

Three big backs, Tonga, Fui, and Unga with all similar strengths. They will hit the hole hard and run over the top of you. They’ll catch passes out of the backfield. No blazing speed or great jukes, but they’ll get the job done. It would have been nice to have a changeup back like Diluigi available. I cried for a JC recruit in the offseason but didn’t get one. Fui’s availability in fall camp after missing spring has been worrisome. Unga is the real surprise. By all accounts, he’s ripping it up every chance he gets. I’m excited to see him out there.

Without the good news from camp on Unga, I’d be very worried. As it is, we should expect this to be a an average BYU backfield. Worse than 2001 and 2006. Better than 2003. About the same as 2004, 2005 as far as talent.

WR/TE

Reed has not developed like I hoped. He should be ready for a star season, but he’s more just a consistent contributor. Mahuika, if he stays healthy should be an exciting guy, catching the short pass and and running like Mahe up and down and left and right all over the field. Allen should be a non-athlete, good hands guy (where did his hands go in Vegas Bowl?). Collie is the stud. Amazing athlete with a hot mom, to boot. Should connect with Hall enough to keep defenses honest for our short passing and running game. An above average BYU WR corp.

I was happy knowing it was So’oto and George, but Pitta’s come in and taken over. Expect a typical TE group with two deep NFL talent. This will be a strength of the team. I’d like to see a lot of double TE sets to get our talent on the field and also block for our RB’s.

OL

Amazing the experience we have and the guys we have stockpiled in the system waiting in the wings. Aulai, Reynolds, Feinga, Bright, Oswald. All five guys with starting experience on a great OL last year. Mack, M. Reynolds, Willing, Sorensen, M. Reynolds, H. Reynolds (not to mention the Reden kid who came from nowhere) etc keeping the cupboard full for years into the future. I expect this to be as good as any BYU OL in history, rivaling the ’96 OL and the other late 90’s year where three guys got drafted high (I’m too young to compare to pre 1985 OL’s).

Overall offense

This is the year we can be grateful we still have Reynolds on the staff. Anae has evolved at BYU, but Reynolds will need to convince Anae to go even more conservative. I’d like to see an offense where we pass less than we ever have at BYU, which still means we’re top 50 percentile passing, but just not in the top 20 (in terms of frequency). Our lack of a changeup or speed back might hurt the efficacy of that kind of offense, though. I expect an offense somewhere around #30 in the nation.

Defense

DL

Losing RT really sucks. With him, we have three returning starters off a very solid group. The DL doesn’t have to do a lot in this 3-4. I expect this group do what they need to, even though they might not duplicate last year’s play with the loss of RT.

Linebackers

An amazing crew. Kehl and Nixon will create havoc. Staffieri and Poppinga will mop it up in the middle. Doman, Hooks, and Bolden are great back ups. The 3-4 is the perfect D for this linebacker group. I don’t expect us to miss Jensen at all. This is the best LB group we’ve had since the Morris led LB groups of late 90’s and it rivals those.

Secondary

Safety is the position that really turned around 180 last year. I was expecting more crappy play from the safeties which was abysmal in 2005, and they became a strength in 2006. Gooch as emerged as a star. We will miss Gabriel, but Hodgkiss has experience. Criddle will be a star at CB. I’m very concerned with JRob’s replacement at field corner. I have yet to hear anything from camp that gives me confidence. Overall, this will be no worse than an average BYU secondary and may be above average.

Overall

Last year finished #17 in my SOS adjusted scoring D stat. An amazing turnaround from #75 in 2005. Compared to 2006, we will be weaker in secondary and line but slightly better at LB. We probably weren’t as good as our #17 said, and I’ll say D is about #40 this year.

Team Overall

I ran two different preseason rankings. One was an avg of five polls, which put BYU at #36 and one was a Santos proprietary preseason quantitative ranking based on historical placing and # or returning starters, which put BYU at #35. My observations of our personnel give me no reason to waiver from this. A #35 ranking equates to about 8.5 wins out of 12. I’ll make a prediction on the entire 13 games including bowl, and go 9-4. 8-4 if I’m pinned down on it for the regular season.

jay santos · 08-27-2007, 07:13 PM

past reports

2006

http://cougarguard.com/forum/showthread.php?t=3953

2005

http://www.cougarboard.com/noframes/...tml?id=1396825

(worth a click just to see the user name)

2004

http://www.cougarboard.com/noframes/...html?id=783522

I have 2003 on my computer but couldn't find where I posted it. I had us 7-5, a little overly optimistic on Berry's progression.

Black Diamond Bay · 08-27-2007, 08:02 PM

Thank you Brother Santos. I appreciate that little breakdown of things.

I am also a bit concerned about the lack of speed at the RB position. I don't think we have anyone that can hit the corner.

Donuthole · 08-27-2007, 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Black Diamond Bay

Thank you Brother Santos. I appreciate that little breakdown of things.

I am also a bit concerned about the lack of speed at the RB position. I don't think we have anyone that can hit the corner.

Too bad Ray Ray transferred. He was all business.

That's right Sizz. My first ever post on CG and I reference your boy.

TheSizzle36 · 08-27-2007, 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donuthole

Too bad Ray Ray transferred. He was all business.

That's right Sizz. My first ever post on CG and I reference your boy.

I appreciate the love. Hope to see more of you here.

Donuthole · 08-27-2007, 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheSizzle36

I appreciate the love. Hope to see more of you here.

I earned myself a ban today, right along with you.

TheSizzle36 · 08-27-2007, 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donuthole

I earned myself a ban today, right along with you.

This site makes the bans much more tolerable. Actually, it makes it so a ban isn't that big of a deal.

What did you get rung up for?

Donuthole · 08-27-2007, 10:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheSizzle36

This site makes the bans much more tolerable. Actually, it makes it so a ban isn't that big of a deal.

What did you get rung up for?

Posting the home phone number and mailing address of Kim Carver.

08-27-2007, 06:03 PM	#1
jay santos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 6,177	2007 Season Take 2007 take Offense QB He’s been given a lot of praise by his coaches and fellow players. Physically, he reminds me of Feterik. Shorter and weaker arm strength but accurate. He struggles making the throws where arm strength is paramount like the outs. He’s going to struggle when he’s improvising. Doman has been very high in his praise, but not knowing Doman’s history on these things I don’t know whether to belief it or chalk it up to typical Doman exuberance. His teammates have also been high in their praise. He’ll be similar to Feterik soph year or Beck soph year, with pass ratings of 144 and 129. If he’s forced to win games himself, it will be an unsuccessful season. If the OL, running game, and D takes the pressure off, he could be very successful. RB Three big backs, Tonga, Fui, and Unga with all similar strengths. They will hit the hole hard and run over the top of you. They’ll catch passes out of the backfield. No blazing speed or great jukes, but they’ll get the job done. It would have been nice to have a changeup back like Diluigi available. I cried for a JC recruit in the offseason but didn’t get one. Fui’s availability in fall camp after missing spring has been worrisome. Unga is the real surprise. By all accounts, he’s ripping it up every chance he gets. I’m excited to see him out there. Without the good news from camp on Unga, I’d be very worried. As it is, we should expect this to be a an average BYU backfield. Worse than 2001 and 2006. Better than 2003. About the same as 2004, 2005 as far as talent. WR/TE Reed has not developed like I hoped. He should be ready for a star season, but he’s more just a consistent contributor. Mahuika, if he stays healthy should be an exciting guy, catching the short pass and and running like Mahe up and down and left and right all over the field. Allen should be a non-athlete, good hands guy (where did his hands go in Vegas Bowl?). Collie is the stud. Amazing athlete with a hot mom, to boot. Should connect with Hall enough to keep defenses honest for our short passing and running game. An above average BYU WR corp. I was happy knowing it was So’oto and George, but Pitta’s come in and taken over. Expect a typical TE group with two deep NFL talent. This will be a strength of the team. I’d like to see a lot of double TE sets to get our talent on the field and also block for our RB’s. OL Amazing the experience we have and the guys we have stockpiled in the system waiting in the wings. Aulai, Reynolds, Feinga, Bright, Oswald. All five guys with starting experience on a great OL last year. Mack, M. Reynolds, Willing, Sorensen, M. Reynolds, H. Reynolds (not to mention the Reden kid who came from nowhere) etc keeping the cupboard full for years into the future. I expect this to be as good as any BYU OL in history, rivaling the ’96 OL and the other late 90’s year where three guys got drafted high (I’m too young to compare to pre 1985 OL’s). Overall offense This is the year we can be grateful we still have Reynolds on the staff. Anae has evolved at BYU, but Reynolds will need to convince Anae to go even more conservative. I’d like to see an offense where we pass less than we ever have at BYU, which still means we’re top 50 percentile passing, but just not in the top 20 (in terms of frequency). Our lack of a changeup or speed back might hurt the efficacy of that kind of offense, though. I expect an offense somewhere around #30 in the nation. Defense DL Losing RT really sucks. With him, we have three returning starters off a very solid group. The DL doesn’t have to do a lot in this 3-4. I expect this group do what they need to, even though they might not duplicate last year’s play with the loss of RT. Linebackers An amazing crew. Kehl and Nixon will create havoc. Staffieri and Poppinga will mop it up in the middle. Doman, Hooks, and Bolden are great back ups. The 3-4 is the perfect D for this linebacker group. I don’t expect us to miss Jensen at all. This is the best LB group we’ve had since the Morris led LB groups of late 90’s and it rivals those. Secondary Safety is the position that really turned around 180 last year. I was expecting more crappy play from the safeties which was abysmal in 2005, and they became a strength in 2006. Gooch as emerged as a star. We will miss Gabriel, but Hodgkiss has experience. Criddle will be a star at CB. I’m very concerned with JRob’s replacement at field corner. I have yet to hear anything from camp that gives me confidence. Overall, this will be no worse than an average BYU secondary and may be above average. Overall Last year finished #17 in my SOS adjusted scoring D stat. An amazing turnaround from #75 in 2005. Compared to 2006, we will be weaker in secondary and line but slightly better at LB. We probably weren’t as good as our #17 said, and I’ll say D is about #40 this year. Team Overall I ran two different preseason rankings. One was an avg of five polls, which put BYU at #36 and one was a Santos proprietary preseason quantitative ranking based on historical placing and # or returning starters, which put BYU at #35. My observations of our personnel give me no reason to waiver from this. A #35 ranking equates to about 8.5 wins out of 12. I’ll make a prediction on the entire 13 games including bowl, and go 9-4. 8-4 if I’m pinned down on it for the regular season.

08-27-2007, 07:13 PM	#2
jay santos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 6,177	past reports 2006 http://cougarguard.com/forum/showthread.php?t=3953 2005 http://www.cougarboard.com/noframes/...tml?id=1396825 (worth a click just to see the user name) 2004 http://www.cougarboard.com/noframes/...html?id=783522 I have 2003 on my computer but couldn't find where I posted it. I had us 7-5, a little overly optimistic on Berry's progression.

08-27-2007, 08:02 PM	#3
Black Diamond Bay Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: California Posts: 1,000	Thank you Brother Santos. I appreciate that little breakdown of things. I am also a bit concerned about the lack of speed at the RB position. I don't think we have anyone that can hit the corner.