My prediction for Iowa

[Tex]

Democrat: Clinton
Republican: Romney

For no other reason, really, then it goes against the "conventional wisdom" pick of Obama and Huckabee.

The real loser tonight, regardless of the outcome, is likely going to be Guiliani who has totally lost any momentum he might have had.

I also hope that after tonight we can winnow the field of also-rans. This means you, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, etc.

[woot]

I just saw Huckabee on Leno, and he is quite impressive. I saw him interviewed a few days ago and was equally impressed. He may be batshit, but he's the best communicator I've seen on the Republican side since at least Reagan. That might explain how such a terrible candidate can be doing so well.

If Obama wins, I bet he gets the nomination. There aren't any black people in Iowa, so he's likely to do at least as well in most other states.

[hyrum]

Originally Posted by Tex

Democrat: Clinton
Republican: Romney

For no other reason, really, then it goes against the "conventional wisdom" pick of Obama and Huckabee.

The real loser tonight, regardless of the outcome, is likely going to be Guiliani who has totally lost any momentum he might have had.

I also hope that after tonight we can winnow the field of also-rans. This means you, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, etc.

Guliani never really invested in Iowa. He is compaigning in states like Florida, California, New York, etc, where there are large numbers of real convention delegates to be gained next month. The media has been focused on NH and Iowa, but there are just a few delegates are at stake. As you mention, these are make-or-break states for second-tier candidates, but I wouldn't expect to see a big shake up in the top 3-4 candidates.

[woot]

And speaking of Ron Paul, http://www.cougarguard.com/forum/showthread.php?t=15530

[MikeWaters]

Edwards stands to most to gain with a win. I'm calling it for Edwards.

[Frank Ryan]

Originally Posted by hyrum

Guliani never really invested in Iowa. He is compaigning in states like Florida, California, New York, etc, where there are large numbers of real convention delegates to be gained next month. The media has been focused on NH and Iowa, but there are just a few delegates are at stake. As you mention, these are make-or-break states for second-tier candidates, but I wouldn't expect to see a big shake up in the top 3-4 candidates.

wasnt florida along with michigan stripped of its delegates?

[hyrum]

Originally Posted by Frank Ryan

wasnt florida along with michigan stripped of its delegates?

I believe their delegate counts were "fined" 50%. Still large numbers at stake there.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Originally Posted by Tex

Democrat: Clinton
Republican: Romney

For no other reason, really, then it goes against the "conventional wisdom" pick of Obama and Huckabee.

Bold call, Tex. But it looks like Romney is going down in flames.

Let us pray that this is Huckabee's last hurrah.

[All-American]

Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski

Bold call, Tex. But it looks like Romney is going down in flames.

Let us pray that this is Huckabee's last hurrah.

Tell me you don't want this man leading the free world:

[Tex]

Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski

Bold call, Tex. But it looks like Romney is going down in flames.

Let us pray that this is Huckabee's last hurrah.

Seems conventional wisdom was right this time around.

I'd hardly call it "in flames" but it's true the pressure is now on for New Hampshire. I can't believe this party will nominate Huckabee, so if it's not Romney, my next dollar would normally be on Guiliani. Problem there is, Guiliani isn't competing in any of these early states, and he could be in a world of hurt before February 5th.

I will be stunned if the party nominates McCain. It will indicate a fundamental shift of the party away from conservative values.