It doesn't look good for Romney

[myboynoah]

Originally Posted by pelagius

I'm now projecting that McCain is the winner.

Yeah, the bottom just fell out on Romney.

[All-American]

Interesting. Here are some of the trades on Romney's stock:

Jan 29, 6:07:22 PM EST 116 Lots @ 29 Price is lower then before
Jan 29, 6:06:48 PM EST 1 Lots @ 29.1 Price is greater then before
Jan 29, 6:06:48 PM EST 68 Lots @ 29 Price is lower then before
Jan 29, 6:05:28 PM EST 2 Lots @ 29.1 Price is lower then before
Jan 29, 6:03:18 PM EST 3 Lots @ 31.1 Price is same as before

Looks like two people recently gave up on a substantial amount of their shares.

[Archaea]

Welcome, Rep nominee McCain. Not one to stir up your passions about. Whoopee, another non-businessman, career politician. Yippee.

McCain Clinton, boooooorrrring.

[All-American]

Woah, McCain's numbers are going back down. They were at 68 a minute ago, and just dropped back down to 63.

Do you think that maybe nobody knows?

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by Archaea

Welcome, Rep nominee McCain. Not one to stir up your passions about. Whoopee, another non-businessman, career politician. Yippee.

McCain Clinton, boooooorrrring.

Why would you conclude Romney isn't the nominee? I still think he wins Florida, and even if he doesn't, I think he wins the nomination.

Most people forget that the majority of the Republican primaries are closed. That blunts the effect of independents. Also, Obama is going to be competing in those states where independents might be allowed to vote in the Republican primary (unlike Florida, where he has been totally absent). That will suck votes away from McCain like a Hoover.

McCain isn't popular amongst the base, and the base is still going to pick the nominee. You will see a lot of negative ads running about McCain from unidentified groups if he wins today. The elite of the Republican party will find ways to sabotage his campaign, and McCain is also prone to being a bit crazy from time to time.

He won't win the nomination. Bank on it.

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by All-American

Woah, McCain's numbers are going back down. They were at 68 a minute ago, and just dropped back down to 63.

Do you think that maybe nobody knows?

You posted this while I was typing, but it just reinforces my opinion. I don't think the markets are much of a predictor, and I am not too surprised they are all over the place right now. There isn't a ton of information available, so many may be seeing slight trends in the pricing, think they are based on "insider info" and go crazy with their trading based off of the non-existant insider info. When it gets totally out of whack, it crashes down the opposite direction.

[pelagius]

Originally Posted by All-American

Woah, McCain's numbers are going back down. They were at 68 a minute ago, and just dropped back down to 63.

Do you think that maybe nobody knows?

It's strange. A lot a volatility. It could be that the exit polls are indeed favorable to McCain but some traders are skeptical of the exit polls given the turnout or the amount of absentee ballots

[Tex]

Originally Posted by All-American

Woah, McCain's numbers are going back down. They were at 68 a minute ago, and just dropped back down to 63.

Do you think that maybe nobody knows?

Seems like to me there's a little too much faith being put in Intrade, and I'm not just saying that because my preferred candidate is down.

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by All-American

Woah, McCain's numbers are going back down. They were at 68 a minute ago, and just dropped back down to 63.

Do you think that maybe nobody knows?

"I will go before you and make the rough places smooth; I will shatter the doors of bronze and cut through their iron bars."

[pelagius]

Originally Posted by Tex

Seems like to me there's a little too much faith being put in Intrade, and I'm not just saying that because my preferred candidate is down.

This sort of faith is assumed when when the person who starts the thread has a PhD from the Univeristy of Chicago.