French election update (if interested)

[myboynoah]

With two weeks to go before the first round vote, it appears that Sarkozy and Royal have pulled ahead and will reach the final runoff. They both seem to have weathered the challenge of the centrist Bayrou.

The other day I heard a Fox report that said that Royal had pulled ahead, but these polls from le Monde have never had her ahead, and usually behind Sarkozy.

French Polls

These are actually interesting to follow. With only two weeks between the first and second voting rounds, it is going to be very interesting to see where people start to fall in the final. My expectation is that France will not elect its first woman president, leaving that honor to the U.S.

[YOhio]

Thanks for the update. I am wondering where the Bayrou voters will go. From you linked poll, it appears that there is an inverse relationship between Bayrou and Royal's poll numbers. I imagine that this means his success has been through taking her voters. If it is Sarkozy and Royal, it'll be interesting to see who wins the fight for Bayrou's voters.

I read a good NYT article the other day about the emphasis on French identity this election, especially by Sarkozy. Has it been as obvious as the article makes it seem?

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/30/wo...=1&oref=slogin

[myboynoah]

Originally Posted by YOhio

Thanks for the update. I am wondering where the Bayrou voters will go. From you linked poll, it appears that there is an inverse relationship between Bayrou and Royal's poll numbers. I imagine that this means his success has been through taking her voters. If it is Sarkozy and Royal, it'll be interesting to see who wins the fight for Bayrou's voters.

I read a good NYT article the other day about the emphasis on French identity this election, especially by Sarkozy. Has it been as obvious as the article makes it seem?

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/30/wo...=1&oref=slogin

Yes, where the Bayrou votes go, as well as those of Le Pen, is a big question. Bayrou's party traditionally allied itself with the rightists, so I wonder if those voters might not split between the two. Head to head polls have always shown Sarkozy beating Royal.

France has not done a very good job of integrating its immigrant population, which remains largely separate from French society (economically, geographically, and culturally). That generates fear and resentment from "white" French people, something Sarkozy has been capitalizing on much of his political career (one of my staff, way back then, highlighted the "scum" remark as a calculated political move by Sarkozy). I'm sure he sees that block of Le Pen voters as the prize.

Given her need to appeal to those minority voters, Royal can't play that game as well as Sarkozy.

It's going to be an interesting four weeks.

[il Padrino Ute]

Originally Posted by myboynoah

With two weeks to go before the first round vote, it appears that Sarkozy and Royal have pulled ahead and will reach the final runoff. They both seem to have weathered the challenge of the centrist Bayrou.

The other day I heard a Fox report that said that Royal had pulled ahead, but these polls from le Monde have never had her ahead, and usually behind Sarkozy.

French Polls

These are actually interesting to follow. With only two weeks between the first and second voting rounds, it is going to be very interesting to see where people start to fall in the final. My expectation is that France will not elect its first woman president, leaving that honor to the U.S.

So, which of the candidates is the lesser wuss?

[Detroitdad]

Originally Posted by il Padrino Ute

So, which of the candidates is the lesser wuss?

Le Pen. Even Tom Tancredo might approve of him.

[il Padrino Ute]

Originally Posted by Detroitdad

Le Pen. Even Tom Tancredo might approve of him.

Nice.

I like Tancredo's style. No BS allowed. Works for me.

[Frank Ryan]

his racist image a bit. any truth to that?

Do any other Western European countries besides France and the UK have active Nationalist parties?