Santos odds for 2007 schedule - cougarguard.com — unofficial BYU Cougars / LDS sports, football, basketball forum and message board

jay santos · 08-21-2007, 08:43 PM

AZ -3 with 65% chance of winning
UCLA +9 with 20%
Tulsa -16, 84%
AFA -18, 95%
UNM -3, 56%
UNLV -21, 96%
EW -36, 99%
SDSU -19, 93%
CSU -7, 69%
TCU -2, 63%
WY -13, 86%
Utah -2, 63%

This was slightly different than previous analysis of 8 wins and some change. This adds up to 8.9 wins and 3.1 losses.

Also, with the favorable home conference schedule, I change my prediction to BYU as slight favorite to win MWC.

MikeWaters · 08-21-2007, 08:44 PM

In my model there is a 100% chance that BYU beats EWU.

BYU71 · 08-21-2007, 08:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay santos

AZ -3 with 65% chance of winning
UCLA +9 with 20%
Tulsa -16, 84%
AFA -18, 95%
UNM -3, 56%
UNLV -21, 96%
EW -36, 99%
SDSU -19, 93%
CSU -7, 69%
TCU -2, 63%
WY -13, 86%
Utah -2, 63%

This was slightly different than previous analysis of 8 wins and some change. This adds up to 8.9 wins and 3.1 losses.

Also, with the favorable home conference schedule, I change my prediction to BYU as slight favorite to win MWC.

I call Bull Crap. You saw my prediction and jumped on board.

jay santos · 08-21-2007, 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BYU71

I call Bull Crap. You saw my prediction and jumped on board.

No, I just thought about it for a minute and realized the spirit counts for at least a few points a game, thus bumping up BYU to the top.

BYU71 · 08-21-2007, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay santos

No, I just thought about it for a minute and realized the spirit counts for at least a few points a game, thus bumping up BYU to the top.

Actually, I feel better we are on the same page. Let DJ and PK pick someone other than BYU.

jay santos · 08-21-2007, 08:54 PM

This could be an interesting set up with the Utah/BYU comparison.

Utah might have a better team than BYU, but end up with a worse record overall, a loss to BYU, and second place to BYU in the MWC race.

Mormon Red Death · 08-21-2007, 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay santos

AZ -3 with 65% chance of winning
UCLA +9 with 20%
Tulsa -16, 84%
AFA -18, 95%
UNM -3, 56%
UNLV -21, 96%
EW -36, 99%
SDSU -19, 93%
CSU -7, 69%
TCU -2, 63%
WY -13, 86%
Utah -2, 63%

This was slightly different than previous analysis of 8 wins and some change. This adds up to 8.9 wins and 3.1 losses.

Also, with the favorable home conference schedule, I change my prediction to BYU as slight favorite to win MWC.

95% against AF? 63% against TCU and Utah? Basically you are projecting byu to be favored by at least a TD in 7 games... That's bold

jay santos · 08-21-2007, 09:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mormon Red Death

95% against AF? 63% against TCU and Utah? Basically you are projecting byu to be favored by at least a TD in 7 games... That's bold

I'm predicting BYU to be #35 team in the nation. If you think that's bold, then it's bold. All the other stuff is just math.

Insensitive PAP · 08-21-2007, 09:51 PM

Percentages look correct. I think we are only underdogs in 1 game this season. Of course we'll lose games we are favorites in, but par, considering the schedule, is about 9 wins. I'd be really happy with par.

TheSizzle36 · 08-21-2007, 11:38 PM

So, say BYU goes 7-5 this year. Just say it happens, those who have BYU at 8-4 or better. How does it change your opinion of Bronco as a coach? Will you feel the team underachieved slightly? Significantly underachieved? 7-5 likely means at least 3 conference losses, or losses to Arizona and UCLA.

More than 3 conference losses and I consider this season disappointing, especially since TCU and Utah the two toughest games are at home.

08-21-2007, 08:43 PM	#1
jay santos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 6,177	Santos odds for 2007 schedule AZ -3 with 65% chance of winning UCLA +9 with 20% Tulsa -16, 84% AFA -18, 95% UNM -3, 56% UNLV -21, 96% EW -36, 99% SDSU -19, 93% CSU -7, 69% TCU -2, 63% WY -13, 86% Utah -2, 63% This was slightly different than previous analysis of 8 wins and some change. This adds up to 8.9 wins and 3.1 losses. Also, with the favorable home conference schedule, I change my prediction to BYU as slight favorite to win MWC.

08-21-2007, 08:44 PM	#2
MikeWaters Demiurge Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 36,365	In my model there is a 100% chance that BYU beats EWU.

08-21-2007, 08:54 PM	#6
jay santos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 6,177	This could be an interesting set up with the Utah/BYU comparison. Utah might have a better team than BYU, but end up with a worse record overall, a loss to BYU, and second place to BYU in the MWC race.

08-21-2007, 09:51 PM	#9
Insensitive PAP Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 293	Percentages look correct. I think we are only underdogs in 1 game this season. Of course we'll lose games we are favorites in, but par, considering the schedule, is about 9 wins. I'd be really happy with par.

08-21-2007, 11:38 PM	#10
TheSizzle36 Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 3,786	So, say BYU goes 7-5 this year. Just say it happens, those who have BYU at 8-4 or better. How does it change your opinion of Bronco as a coach? Will you feel the team underachieved slightly? Significantly underachieved? 7-5 likely means at least 3 conference losses, or losses to Arizona and UCLA. More than 3 conference losses and I consider this season disappointing, especially since TCU and Utah the two toughest games are at home.