Hillary is done

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

Good thing the incumbent isn't running.

Your previous avatar suited you better.

McCain is the establishment candidate. He has been around forever (and looks like it too).

[Indy Coug]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

Your previous avatar suited you better.

Your wish is my command.

[YOhio]

I agree with Cali. Obama is a much stronger candidate than Hillary.

If Obama continues to roll and Hillary fades into the background, he will be a very formidable candidate, almost unbeatable. Especially if the Clinton camp gracefully cooperates and the Dems are united. Hillary can only win if she fractures the party, ensuring that she'll lose a large portion of the AA vote this fall. The party will be split at it's seams and McCain would have a much easier time dispatching Hillary.

[SeattleUte]

Originally Posted by YOhio

I agree with Cali. Obama is a much stronger candidate than Hillary.

If Obama continues to roll and Hillary fades into the background, he will be a very formidable candidate, almost unbeatable. Especially if the Clinton camp gracefully cooperates and the Dems are united. Hillary can only win if she fractures the party, ensuring that she'll lose a large portion of the AA vote this fall. The party will be split at it's seams and McCain would have a much easier time dispatching Hillary.

His big weakness is that he can be portrayed as too soft on and in the head about the radical Islam threat. Then there are the social issues that aren't McCain's forte either with the Republican religious right but they will feel more confident staying with the GOP because of those issues. Many people also fear big government and taxes.

[Tex]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

Ol' Faithful.

http://cougarguard.com/forum/showpos...8&postcount=63

"He that is without sin among you ...."

http://cougarguard.com/forum/showthr...324#post186324

[Detroitdad]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

How in the world can you argue that Obama is a worse candidate that Clinton in the general?

I argue that he is based upon a couple of things. First, his record will be a huge liability in the general election. He is vastly more liberal than Senator Clinton, which will be a liability that I believe will hugely damper his turnout of moderates (both within the party and without).

Secondly, I think the airy rhetoric works really well for partisan crowds but is going to sound real stale by the fall. The substantive deficit will become more clear when it is a stark contrast between parties.

Thirdly, the foreign policy gaffes of this past summer and the unrestrained words of Ms. Obama demonstrate that once the Obama campaign is off its "change" message it founders.

Fourth, Ms. Clinton already has all the negatives that she was going to get, and her exposure as a non-baby eating ogre that the Indy/Tex crew have made her out to be actually lowers her negatives. In other words, she is not going to make anyone else dislike her. Obama on the other hand is only a vague notion in the minds of many, many people, and as he is more well known Obama fatigue is likely to set in, and his negatives will rise.

Lastly, I personally do not trust the judgment of the Whole Foods Democrats and students that are the core of the Obama movement. Putting forward a candidate that pleases this group does not change electoral math. We will still need to make inroads in the groups that Senator Clinton is strongest with to win, because we can take Obama's core support for granted.

The only saving grace that I can think of with Obama is that maybe, just maybe there is a chance that he will draw in more folks, but I don't think that crew is something that the Dems can count on.

I hope I am proven wrong. Although a McCain victory is not as nausea inducing as the Bush presidency.

[Detroitdad]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

What do you mean the electoral college map isn't his friend? It is a huge asset for Obama right now. The African American community is voting in droves, and almost universally for Obama. That puts the entire south in play for the Democrats.

McCain has an almost unbeatable opponent if it is Obama (assuming Hillary doesn't scuttle the Democratic ship along the way).

The only states where the black vote is large enough, and the demographics close enough to effect the electoral vote are Louisiana and to a lesser extent Arkansas. Possibly you could throw Tennesee in there to. Who won two of those three states? Hillary. That tells you all that you need to know about the strength of that constituency.

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by SeattleUte

His big weakness is that he can be portrayed as too soft on and in the head about the radical Islam threat. Then there are the social issues that aren't McCain's forte either with the Republican religious right but they will feel more confident staying with the GOP because of those issues. Many people also fear big government and taxes.

There are aspects of his social record, which are quite radical and which have not been exploited by Hillary, because she has a partial blindspot for these issues.

[YOhio]

Originally Posted by SeattleUte

His big weakness is that he can be portrayed as too soft on and in the head about the radical Islam threat. Then there are the social issues that aren't McCain's forte either with the Republican religious right but they will feel more confident staying with the GOP because of those issues. Many people also fear big government and taxes.

As you have previously said and Adam has demonstrated in this thread, he has a cultlike following. His positions on issues have no real meaning to those under his spell.

[myboynoah]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

The African American community is voting in droves, and almost universally for Obama. That puts the entire south in play for the Democrats. You win one state in the south, and the entire election could be swayed (given the closeness of previous races).

I certainly can't predict the future, but I can relay some facts:

Black Population in Southern States
South Carolina - 30%
North Carolina - 22%
Georgia - 30%
Alabama - 26%
Mississippi - 37%
Louisiana - 32%
Tennessee - 17%
Arkansas - 16%

Most have Repub governors (all but Tennessee and Arkansas, with the lowest percentages), suggesting a strong Repub organization and presence. Plus this is probably the most rabid Repub part of the country. A few more gaffs by Ms. Obama and there will be no need to rally the troops. Obama's strength is trumped.

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

Obama is popular among Democrats, so the blue states should stay blue. He is attracting huge numbers of independents and even moderate Republicans to come over and vote for him. I think he could carry as many as 38-40 states against McCain (unless McCain can find a way to connect with the base, and fast).

You're drinking the koolaid Cali. No way Obama gets close to 40 states. This will be won, as BatGirl pointed out a couple of weeks ago, in a few strategic states (New Mexico, West Virginia, Louisiana, Nevada, maybe Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire).