Romney's problem

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

Sure he can cast himself as the rebel outsider, social conservative, who is going to storm the capital and shake things up.

It's just that no one buys it. And that's why his campaign is on life-support.

I know you, a detester of him from the start, and many pundits share that view. Perhaps you're correct, I'm not making any prognostications. But I don't get the sense he's on life support just yet. The fact that he's not trying to compete in SC concerns me more. I see a lot of wishful thinking in the predictions of pundits and of yourself.

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by Archaea

I know you, a detester of him from the start, and many pundits share that view. Perhaps you're correct, I'm not making any prognostications. But I don't get the sense he's on life support just yet. The fact that he's not trying to compete in SC concerns me more. I see a lot of wishful thinking in the predictions of pundits and of yourself.

He pulled ads from Florida as well.

And is running 4th or 5th in national polls.

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

He pulled ads from Florida as well.

And is running 4th or 5th in national polls.

Yes.

However, look at the make up of the national primaries and I still don't know who will have enough delegates. It may be one of the first where the first ballot doesn't nominate a winner.

Has Giuliani waited too long? Can McCain win anything but NH? Who's next? Huckabee is a flash. We'll see. The pollsters had Obama over Clinton by 11 points in NH.

[DJRoss]

Possible scenario:

Romney pulls in all ads from SC and FL due to:

Pooling resources for a win in Michigan which as a strategist makes the most sense.
Realizing that the Ads were not as effective as originally thought (they are played)
Given the Hollywood writers strike who is watching TV other than sports and news? Not exactly the prime time flow through that would make running Romneys Ads that effective

Romney looking to win in Michigan while allowing McCain to fight on two fronts which he cannot effectively do. McCain basically finds himself in the same boat as Romney was in by trying to take Iowa and New Hampshire. The difference is that second place is not as comfortable for John as it was for Mitt due to the fact that Mitt Romney has earmarked 50 Million of his own funds to spend on this thing. He also just pulled in just over 5 MM yesterday in a one day event. McCain could never accomplish that on his best days.

McCain will most likely push for South Carolina because the media is focused on that state due to Huckabees evangelical circus as well as Barakstar's potential for making the black vote exciting "news". Michigan is just not that sexy, and the proof is how much time yesterday the news media spent on discounting Michigan because of the DNC delegate issue as well as repeated reminders that nobody in Michigan looks ready to have a primary. Add all that to the fact that South Carolina is a Military Veteran stronghold which plays to McCains strengths. Michigan has the Economy as their big issue which plays to Romney's strengths. So McCain most likely will spend more of his limited resources on fighting it out in South Carolina while banking on a second place in Michigan.

McCain could very well end up folding if he comes in second in both states since he needs wins to keep the money train flowing. Thompson is taking his last stand in South Carolina which means he is taking votes from McCain and Huckabee. Romney voters have had the least amount of switching over to other candidates as proven by exit polls in the early primaries. If Romney wins Michigan, he has 4 days to show South Carolina he is the leader which he can do given the number of votes and delegates that he will have accumulated. Winning Michigan will most likely have Romney coming in at worst 3rd in South Carolina and at best 2nd.

Nevada will not be up for grabs if Romney wins Michigan. He will basically take Nevada in almost the same manner as he took Wyoming. Than you Maine who is on the calendar after Florida, but before Big Tuesday.

I think that Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain and Romney are all in this until Big Tuesday. After that I think that McCain will be gone. I think that Giuliani's gamble will have actually paid off. I think the Huckabee will try to tag along, but he will be dead candidate walking after Big Tuesday. He will try to stretch his campaign into mid February in hopes that Kansas, Louisiana and Virginia can keep his dream alive.

If Romney comes in third in Michigan as several media pundits are claiming including our friend Dick Morris than Romney will ride into Big Tuesday and ride out of the race.

[MikeWaters]

who does Romney endorse, if he drops out?

[DJRoss]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

who does Romney endorse, if he drops out?

Maybe Bloomberg LOL

[NorCal Cat]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

who does Romney endorse, if he drops out?

He'll endorse Giuliani because Rudy is the only one that would pick Romney as his VP.

[myboynoah]

Originally Posted by NorCal Cat

He'll endorse Giuliani because Rudy is the only one that would pick Romney as his VP.

That would be one weird Repub ticket, a Mayor from New York and a Governor from Mass. Both from the northeast. Could they even bring their own states into the Repub column? No way for Romney and a big maybe for Rudy.

[MikeWaters]

Maybe he will return the favor and endorse Tancredo.