01-29-2008, 07:56 PM | #11 | |
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01-29-2008, 08:00 PM | #12 |
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01-29-2008, 08:23 PM | #13 |
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Love Intrade. One my colleagues is really big into it. He said that due to the lack of volume it is easy to create arbitrage situations. I have noticed that While Romney trade volume for Florida has been greater over the past 5 days, the sell side has been rather limited. Buyers are lined up wanting to get in cheaply, but the spread has been tighter than McCain where the sell orders are growing.
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01-29-2008, 08:30 PM | #14 |
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This is not so true at the moment. There is a fair amount of depth at the ask with fairly low prices, but the ask side has thickened. the ask side is pretty thick (at least for these contracts at 45) at about $43-49.
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01-29-2008, 08:31 PM | #15 |
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So is McCain the nominee then? With Giuiliani hinting of dropping, Thompson gone, and Huckabee broke, It really is down to Romney and McCain. Knowing that, is Florida really a must win for Romney as much as you guys are saying?
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01-29-2008, 09:07 PM | #16 | |
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I think the trading is media driven. Crist and the top senator in Florida endorsing McCain IMO is doing more to influence the trading than any so called insiders. To actually have insiders who have access to enough district voting numbers would mean circumventing the process. Polls do not close until 7 pm EST. After that, votes will be counted. So if you can shed any light on how these insiders secure voting numbers to base their intrade positions on, I would be much obliged. |
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01-29-2008, 09:17 PM | #17 | |
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01-29-2008, 09:26 PM | #18 |
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This "virtual market," wherein the numbers are fake and the scores don't matter, thinks Romney is having a pretty good day.
http://politicalmarket.cnn.com/market/show/8036 http://politicalmarket.cnn.com/
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01-29-2008, 09:34 PM | #19 | |
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Obviously the exit polls aren't perfect predictors particularly if turnout is bigger than expected or the demographics are different than expected. In those cases, the sample might not representative. Last edited by pelagius; 01-29-2008 at 09:45 PM. |
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01-29-2008, 09:55 PM | #20 |
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I'm now projecting that McCain is the winner.
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