Quote:
Originally Posted by pelagius
There is a growing literature on the intrade contracts in economics. You are right to worry about the depth of the market. For a lot of contracts the market is pretty thinly traded. However, it is going to be by far your best predictor.
For example, by early Tuesday the intrade market swung toward Romney in a big way. I think the best explanation is that some traders clearly had exit poll information early before it was made public:
Here is the link to the thread were I pointed out the change in prices in favor of Romney on Tuesday afternoon:
http://cougarguard.com/forum/showthread.php?t=15926 |
Yes that was the post that piqued my interest.
Pelagius, what do you think of this strategy?
Take the safe bets that have between 50% and 80% chance.
for example,
Hillary for Dem candidate .58
all three McCain, Guliani, Romney for Rep candidate .80
Hillary Florida .84
Romney in Nevada .85
McCain South Carolina .62
both McCain and Guliani in Florida totals .75
You don't win much after commission, but you keep churning those. Makes me wonder if you could exploit it. Maybe there's a bias towards the crazy bet?