The Exit Polls must be good for Romney in Michigian

[pelagius]

The Exit Polls must be good for Romney in Michigan. There has been a spike in the price of the Romney Michigan contract on intrade. I am guessing its traders that have access to at least some of the exit poll data:

[creekster]

Originally Posted by pelagius

The Exit Polls must be good for Romney in Michigan. There has been a spike in the price of the Romney Michigan contract on intrade. I am guessing its traders that have access to at least some of the exit poll data:

You're making me feel like the chicken farmer in Napoleon Dynamite again.

[pelagius]

Originally Posted by creekster

You're making me feel like the chicken farmer in Napoleon Dynamite again.

You can buy a contract that pays $100 if Romney wins the Michigan primary. The last trade was at $65. This suggests the person who bought the last contracts believes there is a 65% chance that Romney wins the primary. The first contract sold today was at $44. So we have seen a dramatic increase the the price of the contract as the day progressed. Some new information must have moved the price. I am guessing it is exit polling leaks.

It is certainly true that we should be careful here. The market is relative thin (i.e., the amount of shares being trading in this contract is not huge). Also the bid/ask spread is large at the moment.