HB Arnett predicts Lobos over BYU 38-31.

[Archaea]

Right now, UNM is a legitimate concern that if we don't play smart, hard and aggressively, we will lose. I predict a narrow victory, but it would not surprise me to see UNM win.

[BYU71]

Originally Posted by RockyBalboa

BYU is in the bottom 10 in the country in turnover margin, while New Mexico is at near the Top 10.

These type of statistics are more meaningful now than they were at the beginning of the season, but it has been only 4 games. I am sure AFA had some statistics in their favor prior to getting hammered by us.

[Goatnapper'96]

Originally Posted by BYU71

These type of statistics are more meaningful now than they were at the beginning of the season, but it has been only 4 games. I am sure AFA had some statistics in their favor prior to getting hammered by us.

I think the statistics on our side are paint a fair picture. On UNM's side not so much since their competition sucked. However, we have not been been creating turnovers much this year. I do think that UNM will need two more turnovers than BYU, but their defense can take the ball away from us IMO.

[jay santos]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

UNM has a PED Differential of 23.0 over BYU going into the game. Historically, that would indicate a roughly 65% chance of their winning the game and the expected margin of victory around 7 points.

Maybe HB isn't smoking grumpy weed after all...

Until you add SOS component to your PED, it's going to be no better than a proxy for any other non-SOS stat, i.e. W/L record or MOV. UNM is 3-1. BYU is 2-2. UNM is +17 MOV. BYU is +5 MOV. Both those would give similar prediction as the PED.

[BYU71]

Originally Posted by Goatnapper'96

I think the statistics on our side are paint a fair picture. On UNM's side not so much since their competition sucked. However, we have not been been creating turnovers much this year. I do think that UNM will need two more turnovers than BYU, but their defense can take the ball away from us IMO.

Valid points. UNM is quick enough and disruptive enough to cause turnovers. We are also on the road which is one thing this team hasn't proven they are poised in a road setting. I equate poise with penalties and turnovers at critical times.

I think both teams are at a critical point and know it. Home advantage for the Lobo's and players who have been there before for the Cougars. I think the been there before wins out.

[Indy Coug]

Originally Posted by jay santos

Until you add SOS component to your PED, it's going to be no better than a proxy for any other non-SOS stat, i.e. W/L record or MOV. UNM is 3-1. BYU is 2-2. UNM is +17 MOV. BYU is +5 MOV. Both those would give similar prediction as the PED.

Like I've said before, PED Differential doesn't have enough credible data until towards the end of the season. By the end of the season, SOS is rendered largely irrelevant as far as PED Differential goes.

http://www.cougarboard.com/noframes/...tml?id=2302955

[BYU71]

I just noticed the opening spread started at 7.5 for BYU and dropped to 6. That is about what I expected.

[BlueHair]

Accuscore.com shows BYU to have a 70% chance of winning with the average score 30-23. They predict Max Hall will pass for 379 yards.

[Insensitive PAP]

When is the last time New Mexico ever won a game that mattered?

[WJCougar]

This won't be like the Tulsa game......UNM's QB is not that accurate and the BYU defense will be UNM's toughest defense they have faced this season. Yes, BYU struggles on the road, but I believe he UCLA and Tulsa games have been great reminders for what BYU needs to do to prepare for the game this week. Look for Max Hall to have a 400 yard passing game against UNM this week.....a breakout game for Collie too.