02-20-2008, 05:18 PM | #41 |
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02-20-2008, 05:22 PM | #42 |
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02-20-2008, 05:25 PM | #43 |
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I agree with Cali. Obama is a much stronger candidate than Hillary.
If Obama continues to roll and Hillary fades into the background, he will be a very formidable candidate, almost unbeatable. Especially if the Clinton camp gracefully cooperates and the Dems are united. Hillary can only win if she fractures the party, ensuring that she'll lose a large portion of the AA vote this fall. The party will be split at it's seams and McCain would have a much easier time dispatching Hillary. |
02-20-2008, 05:33 PM | #44 | |
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02-20-2008, 05:36 PM | #45 | |
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http://cougarguard.com/forum/showthr...324#post186324
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"Have we been commanded not to call a prophet an insular racist? Link?" "And yes, [2010] is a very good year to be a Democrat. Perhaps the best year in decades ..." - Cali Coug "Oh dear, granny, what a long tail our puss has got." - Brigham Young |
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02-20-2008, 05:45 PM | #46 | |
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Secondly, I think the airy rhetoric works really well for partisan crowds but is going to sound real stale by the fall. The substantive deficit will become more clear when it is a stark contrast between parties. Thirdly, the foreign policy gaffes of this past summer and the unrestrained words of Ms. Obama demonstrate that once the Obama campaign is off its "change" message it founders. Fourth, Ms. Clinton already has all the negatives that she was going to get, and her exposure as a non-baby eating ogre that the Indy/Tex crew have made her out to be actually lowers her negatives. In other words, she is not going to make anyone else dislike her. Obama on the other hand is only a vague notion in the minds of many, many people, and as he is more well known Obama fatigue is likely to set in, and his negatives will rise. Lastly, I personally do not trust the judgment of the Whole Foods Democrats and students that are the core of the Obama movement. Putting forward a candidate that pleases this group does not change electoral math. We will still need to make inroads in the groups that Senator Clinton is strongest with to win, because we can take Obama's core support for granted. The only saving grace that I can think of with Obama is that maybe, just maybe there is a chance that he will draw in more folks, but I don't think that crew is something that the Dems can count on. I hope I am proven wrong. Although a McCain victory is not as nausea inducing as the Bush presidency. |
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02-20-2008, 05:49 PM | #47 | |
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The only states where the black vote is large enough, and the demographics close enough to effect the electoral vote are Louisiana and to a lesser extent Arkansas. Possibly you could throw Tennesee in there to. Who won two of those three states? Hillary. That tells you all that you need to know about the strength of that constituency. |
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02-20-2008, 05:53 PM | #48 | |
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02-20-2008, 06:04 PM | #49 | |
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02-20-2008, 06:06 PM | #50 | ||
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Black Population in Southern States South Carolina - 30% North Carolina - 22% Georgia - 30% Alabama - 26% Mississippi - 37% Louisiana - 32% Tennessee - 17% Arkansas - 16% Most have Repub governors (all but Tennessee and Arkansas, with the lowest percentages), suggesting a strong Repub organization and presence. Plus this is probably the most rabid Repub part of the country. A few more gaffs by Ms. Obama and there will be no need to rally the troops. Obama's strength is trumped. Quote:
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Give 'em Hell, Cougars!!! Religion rises inevitably from our apprehension of our own death. To give meaning to meaninglessness is the endless quest of all religion. When death becomes the center of our consciousness, then religion authentically begins. Of all religions that I know, the one that most vehemently and persuasively defies and denies the reality of death is the original Mormonism of the Prophet, Seer and Revelator, Joseph Smith. Last edited by myboynoah; 02-20-2008 at 06:13 PM. |
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