Do you see Leipheimer winning?

[Archaea]

http://www.amgentourofcalifornia.com...standings.html

Where's Contador?

[mtnbiker310]

Originally Posted by Archaea

Where's Contador?

Looks like he was racing in Spain last week, in the Mallorca Challenge.

[bluegoose]

There's still a ways to go, but I think yesterdays stage may have been just enough for him to hold on. He's a strong enough climber and his team is solid enough to cover any serious breakaway threats. Despite what I've heard them say, this tour seems to be made for the sprinters, with good time-trialists likely winning every year unless they drastically change the course to include some mountain, or at least uphill, finishes.

[creekster]

There's not much climbing left so if Cancellara or some other TT guy puts a couple of minutes into Levi how will he make it up?

[bluegoose]

Originally Posted by creekster

There's not much climbing left so if Cancellara or some other TT guy puts a couple of minutes into Levi how will he make it up?

How do you suppose Cancellara will do this? The Solvang TT is 15 miles with rolling hills. Cancellara is definitely a prologue and TT guy, but I don't see him making more than a couple of seconds on Levi there, let alone a couple of minutes. His main competition in the TT, among the contendors, will be from Millar (20" back), Dave Z(21") and Vandevelde(23"). I just dont see any of those guys putting more than a couple of seconds into him from here on out.

Now that I've looked again, stage 6 has some decent climbing and a gradual uphill finish, which should play into Levi's strengths. Barring a bonk of epic proportions, I think he's got it locked up.

[creekster]

Originally Posted by bluegoose

How do you suppose Cancellara will do this? The Solvang TT is 15 miles with rolling hills. Cancellara is definitely a prologue and TT guy, but I don't see him making more than a couple of seconds on Levi there, let alone a couple of minutes. His main competition in the TT, among the contendors, will be from Millar (20" back), Dave Z(21") and Vandevelde(23"). I just dont see any of those guys putting more than a couple of seconds into him from here on out.

Now that I've looked again, stage 6 has some decent climbing and a gradual uphill finish, which should play into Levi's strengths. Barring a bonk of epic proportions, I think he's got it locked up.

You're right, I had no basis for my statement. I have not had a chance to look at the course and pretty much just spouted to see my monkey, I mean Ape, on the screen. Sorry.

[bluegoose]

Originally Posted by creekster

You're right, I had no basis for my statement. I have not had a chance to look at the course and pretty much just spouted to see my monkey, I mean Ape, on the screen. Sorry.

I'm not buying what you're sellin', creek. Whats your angle anyhow?

Cancellara made up 6 seconds on Levi in the prologue, which was only 2.1 miles long. The Solvang ITT is 15 miles, approximately 7x longer than the prologue. Is it safe to assume that he will therefore make up 42 seconds on Levi in the ITT? Probably not, but 20-30 seconds is likely not unreasonable. The big question is - is that enough of a cushion to take into a potentially challenging stage 6?

Like I said before, this race is Cancellara's to lose.

[creekster]

Originally Posted by bluegoose

I'm not buying what you're sellin', creek. Whats your angle anyhow?

Cancellara made up 6 seconds on Levi in the prologue, which was only 2.1 miles long. The Solvang ITT is 15 miles, approximately 7x longer than the prologue. Is it safe to assume that he will therefore make up 42 seconds on Levi in the ITT? Probably not, but 20-30 seconds is likely not unreasonable. The big question is - is that enough of a cushion to take into a potentially challenging stage 6?

Like I said before, this race is Cancellara's to lose.

Well there was a 13-15 second difference between Cancellara and Levi, but Levi was on top. Nothing comes between the TOC's Levi and its yellow Jersey.

[Archaea]

Hmm Levi looking stronger.

http://www.amgentourofcalifornia.com...standings.html

I'll take Levi, you take Cancellera even odds.

[creekster]

Originally Posted by Archaea

Hmm Levi looking stronger.

http://www.amgentourofcalifornia.com...standings.html

I'll take Levi, you take Cancellera even odds.

That is such a simple, binary approach, who esle but you would do it?