Perspective on Romney's so called decline...

[DJRoss]

So in Iowa Romney went from 8% to 26% over 2007.


New Hampshire Romney doubled his support over the same period:



On a national level Romney started out at about 6.5% and has now more than doubled his support:








Romneys game the entire time has been to get his name national recognition. Yes victories are always the preferred result, but to put himself on the national scope where the media is talking about him (good or bad, you know that all advertizing is good advertizing sans major scandals)

Romney has the bank to go into Big Tuesday strong where he will compete with Giuliani and McCain. Huckabee will not be able to drum up enough money to stay in the race. McCain could if he comes in third in Michigan say goodbye to his financial support. Giuliani is sitting on a sufficient sum of money to get him to February.

[BarbaraGordon]

Originally Posted by DJRoss

Romneys game the entire time has been to get his name national recognition. Yes victories are always the preferred result, but to put himself on the national scope where the media is talking about him (good or bad, you know that all advertizing is good advertizing sans major scandals)

Romney has the bank to go into Big Tuesday strong where he will compete with Giuliani and McCain.

You're right that the idea was to win Iowa and get his name out there. It's true that, although he didn't *win* Iowa, he did get his name out there and garner significant national support. *But*, what your graph doesn't show is how much Romney has dropped nationally since the "devastating defeat" (media's words) in Iowa. His numbers have really taken a hit, and frankly he can't afford to get blown out in New Hampshire. The media would have a great time with their "crushing defeat" headlines, and Romney would drop even further.

If he can keep it close in NH, though, the media might spin it as a win for Romney. I'm really curious to see what happens, because I don't see McCain, who may well win NH, nor Huck, who won Iowa, as viable contenders for the national nomination. It's really becoming clear how fully the Republican party is in total chaos.

[BarbaraGordon]

You guys'll like this article. It's about how the GOP better pray Huck doesn't get the nomination:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/01/for_republicans_iowa_better_be.html

[UtahDan]

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon

You guys'll like this article. It's about how the GOP better pray Huck doesn't get the nomination:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/01/for_republicans_iowa_better_be.html

This is the heart of it:

Huckabee's economic populism simply is at odds with too many in his party, which is why, in winning the nation's first caucuses, he lost Republicans earning more than $100,000, those living in urban areas and those for whom a candidate's religious views were not seen as terribly important.

[NorCal Cat]

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon

His numbers have really taken a hit, and frankly he can't afford to get blown out in New Hampshire. The media would have a great time with their "crushing defeat" headlines, and Romney would drop even further.

If he can keep it close in NH, though, the media might spin it as a win for Romney. I'm really curious to see what happens, because I don't see McCain, who may well win NH, nor Huck, who won Iowa, as viable contenders for the national nomination. It's really becoming clear how fully the Republican party is in total chaos.

Romney is not going to get blown out in NH. Not after he killed it in the debate on Sunday night. Frank Luntz's focus group on FNC had a couple Romney supporters going into the debate, after the debate there were around a dozen that said Romney won their vote. Also, reports from NH tonight said Romney's crowds in NH have been growing bigger and bigger. He may not win NH, but it is going to be close. I think it is just a matter of how many Indy's vote for Obama this time around, instead of McCain.

p.s. what happened to your avatar? it was the best on the board.

[woot]

Originally Posted by NorCal Cat

Romney is not going to get blown out in NH. Not after he killed it in the debate on Sunday night. Frank Luntz's focus group on FNC had a couple Romney supporters going into the debate, after the debate there were around a dozen that said Romney won their vote. Also, reports from NH tonight said Romney's crowds in NH have been growing bigger and bigger. He may not win NH, but it is going to be close. I think it is just a matter of how many Indy's vote for Obama this time around, instead of McCain.

p.s. what happened to your avatar? it was the best on the board.

I wouldn't put too much stock in Fox's focus group, since there are rumors that at least one of the undecided voters is a repeat guest in that role, and since Romney is obviously who Fox wants to win.

[BarbaraGordon]

Originally Posted by NorCal Cat

Romney is not going to get blown out in NH. Not after he killed it in the debate on Sunday night. Frank Luntz's focus group on FNC had a couple Romney supporters going into the debate, after the debate there were around a dozen that said Romney won their vote. Also, reports from NH tonight said Romney's crowds in NH have been growing bigger and bigger. He may not win NH, but it is going to be close. I think it is just a matter of how many Indy's vote for Obama this time around, instead of McCain.

I'm expecting about a five point win for McCain. It'll be interesting to see if McCain swings the ind votes. Analysts feel McCain would be the GOP's best shot against Obama, because McCain could compete for swing votes.

p.s. what happened to your avatar? it was the best on the board.

My husband didn't like me having a picture of myself online. I switched to my favorite picture of him, but then I was getting complaints from the peanut gallery, who apparently only like hot avatars if they're of the female variety.

[DJRoss]

Originally Posted by woot

I wouldn't put too much stock in Fox's focus group, since there are rumors that at least one of the undecided voters is a repeat guest in that role, and since Romney is obviously who Fox wants to win.

Yeah and they dealt with that nicely. Colmes asked Luntz if there are those that have been repeats in his focus groups, and he pointed out a couple. Reason? Because they had changed their minds (who they were going to vote for). It does reflect an empirical methodology in order to assess historical values.

So those rumors have now been put to bed.

[DJRoss]

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon

I'm expecting about a five point win for McCain. It'll be interesting to see if McCain swings the ind votes. Analysts feel McCain would be the GOP's best shot against Obama, because McCain could compete for swing votes.

My husband didn't like me having a picture of myself online. I switched to my favorite picture of him, but then I was getting complaints from the peanut gallery, who apparently only like hot avatars if they're of the female variety.

I think it was the slight flash of pubic hairs that creeped some of us out.

[woot]

Originally Posted by DJRoss

Yeah and they dealt with that nicely. Colmes asked Luntz if there are those that have been repeats in his focus groups, and he pointed out a couple. Reason? Because they had changed their minds (who they were going to vote for). It does reflect an empirical methodology in order to assess historical values.

So those rumors have now been put to bed.

Funny how trusting you are of results provided by an organization so obviously pulling for a specific candidate. Since you share their agenda I guess that would explain it.