Using the most recent polling data available Feb 5th should produce the following... - cougarguard.com — unofficial BYU Cougars / LDS sports, football, basketball forum and message board

DJRoss · 02-05-2008, 05:03 AM

McCain with 640 delegates
Romney with 481 delegates
Huckabee with 135 delegates
Paul with 40 delegates

This includes the winner take all, all previous delegates.

Caveats are:

1. All Thompson votes I gave to Romney
2. All Giuliani votes I gave to McCain
3. All Unsure votes I gave to the leading candidate in that poll.

If Huckabee continues to remain in the race, his party will apply the thumbscrews to stand down. Regardless of his choice, after Feb 5th given the above scenario, his votes will die down to Paul percentages in the remaining states. These are limited to die hard evangelicals who refuse to vote for anyone other than Huckabee as Pastor in Chief.

Romney would be down 159 delegates after Feb 5th

What are important are Huckabee's 135 delegates, and if he tries to carry them all the way to the convention, it could be the difference maker in a brokered convention. The delegates will make the choice not Huckabee, and it will come down to Conservativism vs. Mormon Hate.

If Romney can keep within 200 delegates after Feb 5th, he is within striking range as his recent surge has more time to grow.

The next two dates on the nomination calendar see the following races:

Saturday, February 9

Kansas 39
Louisiana 47
Washington 40 (winner take all)
total 126

Of these Romney looks to take Louisiana and Washington with Kansas up in the air due to the Huckabee effect.

Saturday, February 12

D.C 19 (winner take all)
Maryland 37 (winner take all)
Virginia 63 (winner take all)
total 119

D.C and Maryland are McCain's with Virginia up for grabs. Again Huckabee could play a factor in being a Romney spoiler in this state although not as much as in Kansas.

February 19th has only Wisconsin's 40 delegates (winner take all). If Romney is still around by this time, he needs to take Wisconsin to boost his chances on March 4th.

McCain and Romney will have 2 weeks to prepare for March 4th which has 265 delegates up for grabs in

Ohio 88 (winner take all)
this is a huge opportunity for Romney if he makes it this far. The last polls taken had McCain up by 6 points. However with Thompsons 2 a considerable portion of Huckabees 14 points and a 25% undecided (that will change of course) going to Romney, he could take it.
Rhode Island 20 Most likely a McCain state
Texas 140 latest polls has Romney with a one point lead over McCain in a winner take all. Romney taking this along with Ohio would most likely push Romney over the edge towards the nomination.
Vermont 17 Again another McCain state.

Guam and American Samoa have theirs also in February with a total of 18 delegates up for grabs. Which way the wind blows on the islands amongst the precious few GOP'ers is anyones guess. Although I would not be surprised to see McCain take the lions share of those.

All-American · 02-05-2008, 05:21 AM

Do you think BYU can make the BCS? 10-2, yes, but they got a shot . . .

NorCal Cat · 02-05-2008, 07:07 AM

Romney is not out of it yet,but let's see what happens Tuesday. The deck is stacked against Romney though. If he can win the majority of delegates from CA, and pull off a couple better than expected showings in a couple of other states, he will still have a shot. He seems to be gaining momentum. Ohio and Texas would be must wins for him.

What is KILLING Romney is the bad luck of the winner take all states. I think losing these states will ultimately be his undoing. It really is stupid to have different processes for choosing delegates within the same party. The Repubs need to get their act together and decide on one system for all states.

02-05-2008, 05:03 AM	#1
DJRoss Member Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 340	Using the most recent polling data available Feb 5th should produce the following... McCain with 640 delegates Romney with 481 delegates Huckabee with 135 delegates Paul with 40 delegates This includes the winner take all, all previous delegates. Caveats are: 1. All Thompson votes I gave to Romney 2. All Giuliani votes I gave to McCain 3. All Unsure votes I gave to the leading candidate in that poll. If Huckabee continues to remain in the race, his party will apply the thumbscrews to stand down. Regardless of his choice, after Feb 5th given the above scenario, his votes will die down to Paul percentages in the remaining states. These are limited to die hard evangelicals who refuse to vote for anyone other than Huckabee as Pastor in Chief. Romney would be down 159 delegates after Feb 5th What are important are Huckabee's 135 delegates, and if he tries to carry them all the way to the convention, it could be the difference maker in a brokered convention. The delegates will make the choice not Huckabee, and it will come down to Conservativism vs. Mormon Hate. If Romney can keep within 200 delegates after Feb 5th, he is within striking range as his recent surge has more time to grow. The next two dates on the nomination calendar see the following races: Saturday, February 9 Kansas 39 Louisiana 47 Washington 40 (winner take all) total 126 Of these Romney looks to take Louisiana and Washington with Kansas up in the air due to the Huckabee effect. Saturday, February 12 D.C 19 (winner take all) Maryland 37 (winner take all) Virginia 63 (winner take all) total 119 D.C and Maryland are McCain's with Virginia up for grabs. Again Huckabee could play a factor in being a Romney spoiler in this state although not as much as in Kansas. February 19th has only Wisconsin's 40 delegates (winner take all). If Romney is still around by this time, he needs to take Wisconsin to boost his chances on March 4th. McCain and Romney will have 2 weeks to prepare for March 4th which has 265 delegates up for grabs in Ohio 88 (winner take all) this is a huge opportunity for Romney if he makes it this far. The last polls taken had McCain up by 6 points. However with Thompsons 2 a considerable portion of Huckabees 14 points and a 25% undecided (that will change of course) going to Romney, he could take it. Rhode Island 20 Most likely a McCain state Texas 140 latest polls has Romney with a one point lead over McCain in a winner take all. Romney taking this along with Ohio would most likely push Romney over the edge towards the nomination. Vermont 17 Again another McCain state. Guam and American Samoa have theirs also in February with a total of 18 delegates up for grabs. Which way the wind blows on the islands amongst the precious few GOP'ers is anyones guess. Although I would not be surprised to see McCain take the lions share of those. __________________ Click on image for my card and blog

02-05-2008, 05:21 AM	#2
All-American Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 3,420	Do you think BYU can make the BCS? 10-2, yes, but they got a shot . . . __________________ εν αρχη ην ο λογος

02-05-2008, 07:07 AM	#3
NorCal Cat Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Where do you think? Posts: 1,201	Romney is not out of it yet,but let's see what happens Tuesday. The deck is stacked against Romney though. If he can win the majority of delegates from CA, and pull off a couple better than expected showings in a couple of other states, he will still have a shot. He seems to be gaining momentum. Ohio and Texas would be must wins for him. What is KILLING Romney is the bad luck of the winner take all states. I think losing these states will ultimately be his undoing. It really is stupid to have different processes for choosing delegates within the same party. The Repubs need to get their act together and decide on one system for all states.